Rates on hold, listings thinning: the GTA market in October 2026

For most of 2025 the question in GTA real estate was when the Bank of Canada would cut again. In October 2026 the Bank has held at 2.25% since the spring, inflation has drifted back toward 3% on energy prices, and bank economists are debating whether the next move is a hold through 2027 or a hike. That shift changes what buyers in Oakville, Halton and the northern 905 are waiting for.

On 2 September 2026 the Bank of Canada left the overnight rate target at 2.25%, saying the economy and inflation were evolving broadly as forecast in July. Second-quarter GDP grew 3.3%, the economy remained in excess supply, and CPI inflation was near 3%, mainly on gasoline.

The Bank said upside risks to its inflation forecast had increased and that it was "prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed." The summary of Governing Council deliberations went further: if energy prices spill into other prices, members agreed it "could require a monetary policy response to prevent broad-based inflation from setting in." Statistics Canada's Consumer Price Index release of 14 September 2026 put August inflation at 3.0%, gasoline up 22.8% year over year and CPI excluding gasoline at 2.4%. The next decision is 28 October 2026.

None of the bank economics departments we reviewed forecasts a cut. TD Economics, in its 2 September 2026 note by economist Marc Ercolao, expects 2.25% through 2027: "we continue to expect rates to remain unchanged through next year." BMO Economics deputy chief economist Michael Gregory, in a forecast reported on 13 August 2026, also holds 2.25% through the end of 2027. RBC Economics, in its Monthly Forecast Update of 11 September 2026, expects a hold through 2026 before "hiking gradually in 2027 on a stronger economy," adding that "risks are tilting towards earlier hikes." Scotiabank is the outlier: Derek Holt's 2 September 2026 Scotia Flash reaffirmed a call for "at least 75bps of rate hikes starting in Q4 into early 2027."

The Bank of Canada's posted-rate series showed the major banks' conventional five-year mortgage rate at 6.19% and prime at 4.45% as of 7 October 2026. Posted rates sit above what borrowers negotiate, but five-year money has not become cheaper this autumn.

TRREB's September 2026 Market Watch, released 6 October 2026, recorded 5,040 GTA sales, down 9.0% year over year, on 16,500 new listings, down 14.4%. The average selling price was $1,006,409, down 5.1%, and the MLS Home Price Index composite was down 4.7%. TRREB's trend measure of months of inventory stood at 4.6. TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer said: "We know there is substantial pent-up demand in the GTA," adding that would-be buyers "need to be confident that their employment situation will remain solid and inflation will not put pressure on borrowing costs over the long term."

The same report gives Halton Region 502 sales across all home types at an average of $1,139,025. Oakville recorded 162 sales at an average of $1,365,169 on 1,073 active listings. Oakville detached saw 85 sales at an average of $1,740,421, with 596 active listings and sold prices averaging 95% of list; King recorded 16 detached sales at an average of $2,131,250. TRREB does not publish year-over-year changes for these sub-areas. Our own arithmetic on TRREB's figures puts Oakville at roughly 6.6 months of supply at September's sales pace, about seven months in detached, against about 5.2 for Halton. The Oakville, Milton and District Real Estate Board, through CREA, put the Oakville-Milton median detached price at $1,410,000 in the second quarter of 2026, up 0.9%.

The Bank of Canada's Financial Stability Report 2026, published in May 2026, adds the renewal picture. The last pandemic-era five-year fixed-payment mortgages, about 12% of all outstanding mortgages, renew over the following twelve months with payments rising about 15% on average. A further 14% renew with no average payment change, and nearly all borrowers facing large increases will have renewed by the second half of 2027.